WEATHER

Welcome to our weather page, with information kindly provided by the Bureau of Meteorology.

The weather page was updated on 3 August, however for up-to-the-minute weather reporting and forecasting, please go to www.bom.gov.au  or download the BOM weather app.

Victoria in July 2018: mild days, below average rainfall

3/8/2018
July rainfall was lower than average across most of northern and eastern Victoria. Daytime temperatures were warmer than average, while night-time temperatures were mostly close to average.



 

Key points:

• Statewide rainfall was 33% below the long-term July mean of 70 mm, the driest July since 2002
• Large areas in the north and east of Victoria, and to the north of Melbourne had rainfall totals in the driest 10 per cent on record for July
• Several areas in Victoria's southwest had above average July rainfall
• Victoria's mean daytime temperature was 1.18 °C above the long-term July average, sixth-warmest on record
• Strong winds were recorded across Victoria on the 17th, when a fast-moving cold front accompanied with thunderstorms swept across the State, downing trees, damaging properties, and causing power outages. The strongest wind gust recorded during this event was 141 km/h, at Wilsons Promontory lighthouse

Read the complete July 2018 Climate Summary for Victoria.

El Niño WATCH activated; 50% chance of El Niño in spring 2018

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral, however, recent model forecasts and observations show an increased likelihood of El Niño this spring. The Bureau's ENSO Outlook status has moved to El Niño WATCH. El Niño WATCH means that the chances of El Niño forming in 2018 is approximately 50%.

Sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean have been slowly warming since April. Waters beneath the surface of the tropical Pacific are now warmer than average—a common precursor to El Niño. Five of the eight international climate models surveyed by the Bureau predict that ocean temperatures are likely to reach El Niño thresholds in spring, while a sixth model falls just short. El Niño during spring often means below average rainfall for Victoria, while a neutral ENSO phase (neither El Niño nor La Niña) has little effect on rainfall.

See the ENSO Wrap-Up for more details.

Model soil moisture in the Australian Landscape Water Balance

27/7/2018
The Australian Landscape Water Balance is an interactive website which provides Australia-wide information on key landscape water balance components including soil moisture, runoff, evapotranspiration, deep drainage and precipitation in near real time. Information can be visualised, investigated and downloaded at the continent, catchment and point scale with daily updates. You can get estimates of the current and historical state of the key landscape water balance components, as well as the movement of water through the landscape. The information is available at a daily, monthly and annual time step from 1911 onwards, providing timely information for better water related decision making.

The current month-to-date root zone soil moisture map shows soil moisture is below average for much of the State, except in the southwest, and very much below average (in the bottom 10% of historic records) in large parts of the east.
Go to the Australian Landscape Water Balance website.

Warm & dry August–October likely

27/7/2018
The latest Climate Outlooks for August–October show it is highly likely Victoria is in for a warmer and drier than average three months. The chance of above average daytime temperatures is greater than 80% across the entire State. Night-times too have a greater than 80% chance of being warmer than average—except in the northwest where chances are slightly lower.




Much of northern Victoria has a greater than 80% chance of a drier than average August–October with chances reducing towards the southeast and southwest. The outlook for drier than average conditions means that places currently experiencing serious or severe rainfall deficiencies are unlikely to receive respite in the coming months. While both the Indian Ocean Dipole and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation are currently neutral (having little impact on our weather), the Bureau's model suggests the westerly winds and associated rain systems that typically flow along the south of Australia at this time of year are likely to be weaker than average.



For more information on the likelihood of receiving specific amounts of rainfall in the month and season ahead, take a look at our Chance of at least maps. There are one-month and three-month maps for different rainfall amounts. The chance of at least 100 mm map shows that much of southern and eastern Victoria has a high chance (>80%) of receiving at least 100 mm from August to October but chances lower towards the north and northwest—Swan Hill has a less than 25% chance of at least 100 mm.




See our Climate Outlooks for more details, and check out the video here.

Laverton radar upgrade

The Bureau of Meteorology is refurbishing key components of the Laverton Radar in early April, to complete a mid-life upgrade that will extend the life of the radar by another 10 years. For current weather and three-hour forecasts go to MetEye . The nearby Broadmeadows Radar will be available and should be used in combination with the Bureau's Satellite Viewer cloud and lightning images. We expect to have the radar back on line mid-April. 

50% chance of El Niño

The Bureau's El Niño WATCH remains in place, meaning there's about a 50% chance of El Niño developing later this year.



While the central Pacific Ocean has cooled very slightly in the past fortnight, more than half of international climate models predict warming to recommence in the coming weeks, and El Niño likely to develop in spring. Like the sea surface, the sub-surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific have cooled recently but remain slightly warmer than average. Atmospheric indicators such as the trade winds and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), remain neutral. El Niño during spring typically means below average rainfall for northern and eastern Australia, including Victoria while a neutral ENSO phase (neither El Niño nor La Niña) has little effect on rainfall.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral. Three of six international climate models indicate a positive IOD event may develop, with a fourth model close to meeting thresholds. A positive IOD event in spring typically reduces rainfall in central and southern Australia, and can exacerbate any El Niño driven rainfall deficiencies.

See the ENSO Wrap-Up for more details.