July–Sept. Outlook: Dry & Warm Likely

The July to September outlook, issued Thursday 13 June, shows Victoria is likely to be drier and warmer than average over the coming three months.

Below average rainfall is most likely in a band stretching across the middle of the State from the SA border almost all the way to Wodonga; those parts have greater than 75% chance of below average rainfall. Further north and further south, the chance of below average rainfall reduces slightly.

Days are likely to be warmer than usual this July–September, with the highest chances in the north and northeast. Chances reduce to the south and west, and along the southwest coast the chance of warmer or cooler than average days is roughly equal.

Nights are likely to be warmer than average for most of the State. Chances are greatest in the southeast and reduce to the north and west. Parts of the South West forecast district show no strong push towards warmer or cooler than average nights. And while nights are likely to be warmer than average in parts, the expected lower cloud cover means there is an increased risk of frost in susceptible areas.

A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is forecast to persist through winter and into spring. A positive IOD typically brings below average rainfall to much of central and southern Australia during winter- spring. The positive IOD is likely to be the dominant climate driver for Australia during the next three months.

See the complete climate outlook.

And don't forget to check out the video.