Dry July except for Gippsland
July rainfall is on track to be very much below average for large parts of Victoria. But in stark contrast, rainfall for Central and East Gippsland has been above to very much above average. Most of the southern half of Australia has been drier than average this July except for parts of Gippsland and the NSW coast where heavy rainfall triggered a number of minor flood warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.
Winter so far has been dry in western and central Victoria and close to average in Central and East Gippsland. Thanks to the wet start to the year, rainfall for 2020 so far is above average for central Victoria and West Gippsland and close to average for most other parts.
Days were warmer than average this July, especially in the northeast. Nights ranged from very much colder than average in the northwest through to very much warmer than average in the far east.
The rainfall outlook for August shows roughly equal chances of above or below average rainfall for most of Victoria. But there are signs that it could be drier than usual in the southwest. As we move into spring the chance of above average rainfall increases. The outlook for September to November shows high chances (greater than 80%) for a wetter than average three months for parts of the north reducing to slightly increased chances for above average rainfall in the southwest and southeast
Days and nights are very likely (greater than 80% chance) to be warmer than average during August for most of the State. The three-month temperature outlook for spring (September to November) shows days are likely to be warmer than average across southern Victoria while nights are very likely to be warmer than average across the whole State.
The Bureau of Meteorology's ENSO Outlook is at La Niña WATCH, meaning the chance of La Niña developing in the coming months is around 50%—roughly double the normal risk. And about half of the international climate models are favouring negative Indian Ocean Dipole during spring. The increased chance of either a La Niña, or a negative Indian Ocean Dipole, or both, is increasing the likelihood of a wetter than average spring for southeast Australia, including Victoria. The long-term warming trend is likely to be an influence on temperature patterns in the coming months.