Neutral rainfall outlook for autumn
The first look autumn outlook, released on Thursday 14 February, shows no strong shift in the odds for rainfall for the season. However, temperatures are likely to be higher than average in the coming three months.
Most of Victoria has a greater than 80% chance of warmer than normal maximum temperatures this autumn.
Minimum temperatures are likely to be above average, with the greatest chance (>80%) in the south and parts of the east.
The chance of above average autumn rainfall is close to 50% for most of Victoria. That means there is roughly equal chance of a drier or wetter than average season ahead. Average autumn rainfall in Victoria ranges from around 50 mm in the northwest to over 200 mm in parts of the Yarra Ranges, the Alps, and the far east.
The Bureau's ENSO Outlook is currently at El Niño WATCH, meaning there is a 50% chance of El Niño developing from autumn; this is double the normal chance. El Niño typically brings below average autumn and winter rainfall to Victoria
See the Climate Outlooks for more information and don't forget to check out the Outlook Video.