A dry May on the cards
Most of Victoria is still waiting for an autumn break. Parts of the east and southwest received average to above average rain in March but elsewhere, much of the State remains dry. Parts of the Mallee are yet to receive rainfall this April. Unfortunately, the Bureau of Meteorology doesn't see any strong signs of widespread improvement during May.
The latest rainfall outlook for May, issued 26 April 2019, shows a drier than average month is likely for most of Victoria. The chances of below average rainfall are highest in the northeast of the State.
Importantly, the higher chances of drier conditions in the May outlook does not extend into June. The three-month May to July rainfall outlook overall is mostly neutral; most of the State has no strong tendency towards significantly drier or wetter than normal conditions.
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral, but most climate models suggest a short-lived El Niño could form in the coming months. If El Niño does develop, it would increase the chances of a drier winter. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is forecast to remain neutral from May to July so has little influence on this outlook.
Warmer than normal days are very likely (greater than 80% chance) for most of Victoria for the three months. While nights are also likely to be warmer than average for May-July, the forecast for drier conditions could bring more cloud-free nights, increasing the risk of frost in susceptible areas.
For the complete climate outlook visit www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks