Neutral spring outlook for southeast Victoria

The outlook for spring, released Thursday 15 August, shows no strong push towards a wetter or drier season ahead for southeast Victoria. At the same time, both maximum and minimum temperatures have roughly equal chances of being warmer than usual. It’s a change from the dry and warm outlooks the Bureau's been issuing for most of 2019. But for northern Victoria, spring 2019 is still likely to be drier than normal.

The outlook for spring 2019 is being influenced by the current state of the oceans surrounding us. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific is neutral, but sea surface temperature patterns in the Indian Ocean are likely to remain the key influence on Australia's climate for the coming months.

The broader Indian Ocean sea surface temperature, cloud and wind patterns have been consistent with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) since late May. Climate models forecast the positive IOD will last through spring. Typically, a positive IOD brings below average winter–spring rainfall to southern and central Australia, and above average daytime temperatures for the southern two-thirds of Australia.

The forecast for drier than average conditions means more cloud-free nights than average are likely. Coupled with dry soils in parts of the east and northwest, and there is still potential for frosts in susceptible areas with an increased risk of late-season frosts this spring.

See the complete spring outlook at www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks and make sure to check out the video.