Above average rainfall in April means it has been Victoria's wettest start to the year since 2011.
Rainfall has been well above average in central and northern districts; most of the north and parts of
central Victoria had more than double their typical April rainfall this year.
Overall, it was Victoria's third wettest April in 121 years of record, and the wettest since 1974.
Lancefield and Redesdale had their highest daily April rainfall on record with 88.0 mm and 84.0 mm
respectively on the 4th, and both sites have more than 100 years of record.
In addition to daily April records, five stations with more than 100 years of record had their highest
monthly April rainfall: Inglewood, Wycheproof, Lake Eildon, Tangambalanga and Birchip.
Overall, water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) are 35.2%, up 1.8% from a year
earlier. Storages in the key Victorian systems of Goulburn and Campaspe within the MDB are at
39.6% (up 7.4% from a year earlier) and 31.8% (down 5.5% from a year earlier) respectively. The
total across Victoria's south is just over one-third full, up 4% from a year earlier. While we're starting
to see conditions that are more favourable for in-filling, we are following a couple of very dry and
very warm years.
Year to date root zone soil moisture is above average across the State except for parts of East
Gippsland where it's close to average.
Looking ahead, we're not seeing a strong push towards wetter or drier conditions during May. But
the outlook for winter shows high chances (greater than 80 per cent) for a wetter than average
season for parts of northern and central Victoria. The chance of getting above average winter rainfall
reduces further south, while much of Gippsland only has a 50:50 chance.
Overnight temperatures are very likely (greater than 80 per cent chance) to be warmer than average
across most of Victoria this winter, reducing the likelihood of frost. Daytime temperatures are likely
to be warmer than average in most parts but cooler in the northwest.
While the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral, computer models suggest a negative IOD
could develop from mid-winter. A negative IOD typically increase the likelihood of above average
winter-spring rainfall across southern Australia. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently
neutral too but could shift into a phase that is more favourable for above average rainfall in our
region later in winter.