While there are still a few days to go to the end of summer, the season has delivered close to
average rainfall for most of Victoria. Some parts around Melbourne and in West Gippsland had
above average rainfall while parts of the north, northeast and the far east had below average
Across the border in NSW, rainfall ranged from very much above average (decile range 10) along
parts of the coast to very much below average (decile range 1) in the west.
It might come as a surprise to some, but summer is on track to be warmer than average across most
of the State. Daytime temperatures in the south were closer to average but warmer than average in
the north. Overnight temperatures were warmer than average, except in parts of the northwest.
One reason this summer hasn't felt that hot for some Victorians is because maximum temperatures
this February, normally Victoria's warmest month of the year, have been cooler than average for
most of the State apart from the north. The cool February follows a relatively warm January and a
very warm December (second warmest on record).
The Bureau of Meteorology's one-month and three-month Climate Outlooks are updated every
Thursday (and the weekly and fortnightly outlooks are updated every Monday and Thursday). The
latest outlook for autumn still shows most of the State has roughly equal chances of above or below
average rainfall. But there is now some indication that parts of the northwest are likely to be slightly
wetter than average.
The one-month outlook for March shows most of the State is likely to be wetter than average. But
the outlook for April is currently neutral with no strong push towards a wetter or drier than average
month across Victoria.
Daytime temperatures are likely to be above average over the northeast in March and April, and
above average over parts of the north and east for autumn (March–May). Overnight temperatures
are expected to be warmer than average across the period. The Bureau of Meteorology's dynamical
climate model is indicating that cloud and mean sea level pressure patterns are likely to remain close
to average for autumn overall, in agreement with the mostly 50:50 autumn rainfall outlook.
Check out the latest Climate Outlooks.