Average summer rain for most

While there are still a few days to go to the end of summer, the season has delivered close to average rainfall for most of Victoria. Some parts around Melbourne and in West Gippsland had above average rainfall while parts of the north, northeast and the far east had below average rainfall.

Across the border in NSW, rainfall ranged from very much above average (decile range 10) along parts of the coast to very much below average (decile range 1) in the west.

It might come as a surprise to some, but summer is on track to be warmer than average across most of the State. Daytime temperatures in the south were closer to average but warmer than average in the north. Overnight temperatures were warmer than average, except in parts of the northwest.

One reason this summer hasn't felt that hot for some Victorians is because maximum temperatures this February, normally Victoria's warmest month of the year, have been cooler than average for most of the State apart from the north. The cool February follows a relatively warm January and a very warm December (second warmest on record).

The Bureau of Meteorology's one-month and three-month Climate Outlooks are updated every Thursday (and the weekly and fortnightly outlooks are updated every Monday and Thursday). The latest outlook for autumn still shows most of the State has roughly equal chances of above or below average rainfall. But there is now some indication that parts of the northwest are likely to be slightly wetter than average.

The one-month outlook for March shows most of the State is likely to be wetter than average. But the outlook for April is currently neutral with no strong push towards a wetter or drier than average month across Victoria.

Daytime temperatures are likely to be above average over the northeast in March and April, and above average over parts of the north and east for autumn (March–May). Overnight temperatures are expected to be warmer than average across the period. The Bureau of Meteorology's dynamical climate model is indicating that cloud and mean sea level pressure patterns are likely to remain close to average for autumn overall, in agreement with the mostly 50:50 autumn rainfall outlook.

Check out the latest Climate Outlooks.

Recent Weather Updates

  • Wettest autumn in decades | 29/05/2020  

    Most of Victoria has been wetter than average this autumn so far, and it is only parts of the far east that have been drier than usual.

  • Chance of a double whammy | 15/05/2020  

    The chance of a wetter than average winter is strengthening for parts of the State.

  • Wetter winter likely for the north | 24/04/2020  

    A wet start to 2020 means root zone soil moisture for this time of year is above average for most of Victoria except for parts of the southwest and East Gippsland.