La Niña has ended; ENSO neutral conditions return
The weak and short-lived 2017-18 La Niña has ended, and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is now neutral. Most international models show that ENSO neutral is the most likely scenario through the autumn and into winter. However, model accuracy during autumn is lower than at other times of the year. ENSO neutral does not automatically mean near-average rainfall for Victoria; the chance of widespread extremes is reduced, and other climate drivers can have greater influence.
A weak La Niña will typically have less influence on Australian rainfall than a strong event. The 2017-18 summer rainfall outlook, issued 30 November 2017, showed near equal chances of a wetter or drier than average season for much of Victoria (and most of eastern Australia), despite La Niña conditions in place from December 2017.
Read the comlete ENSO Wrap-up.