WEATHER

Welcome to our weather page, with information kindly provided by the Bureau of Meteorology.

The weather page was updated on 7 June, however for up-to-the-minute weather reporting and forecasting, please go to www.bom.gov.au  or download the BOM weather app.





Odds on for a mild winter


VFF update Thursday 31 May 2018

The latest outlook for winter, issued Thursday 31 May, shows Victoria can expect milder temperatures in the coming season. Daytime temperatures will very likely be warmer than average with chances greater than 80% across the State. Overnight temperatures are likely to be warmer than average too, with the greatest chance (>80%) in parts of the southeast and southwest.





The rainfall outlook for winter shows most of Victoria is likely to be drier than average, except for the south. There is at least a 70% chance of below average rainfall in the north but in the south, chances are close to 50% for a drier than average season. One of the reasons for the dry outlook is forecast warmer-than-usual temperatures in the Tasman Sea and associated lower-than-normal air pressure. This is likely to contribute to a weakening of westerly winds over southern Australia that would normally draw rain bearing cold fronts up from the Southern Ocean.



Read the complete Climate outlook and subscribe to stay up to date with the latest long-range guidance.



The Introduction to Climate course provides expert insight into the fundamentals of climate services, which will allow more informed decisions at seasonal timescales and beyond. It’s delivered by professional trainers from the Bureau of Meteorology—giving you specialised information direct from the source.

Introduction to Climate is a highly informative one-day course that provides an overview of the drivers of climate. Course content is relevant to government and private organisations, as well as individuals who use climate information to manage risk and make critical decisions. The course is also relevant to anyone with an interest in the climate and climate services.

29 June 2018, Bureau of Meteorology, 700 Collins St, Docklands. Cost $660 (including GST)

Mick Pope (Course Manager) | Telephone 03 9669 4204 | Email i2c@bom.gov.au  

Pacific and Indian oceans likely to remain neutral this winter, but tropical Pacific Ocean warming

VFF update Thursday 7 June 2018 

Two of Victoria's major climate drivers, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are currently neutral, meaning they are unlikely to have a strong influence on winter rainfall.

ENSO is currently neutral, but the tropical Pacific is slowly warming, and climate models suggest the trend will continue in the coming months. The amount of forecast warming varies, with some models indicating temperatures close to the long-term average, but three of the eight models exceed El Niño thresholds in October.

Figure 1 showing three models exceed El Niño thresholds in October in the central Pacific Ocean (NINO3.4). Model outlooks provided by: BoM (Bureau of Meteorology), CanSIPS (Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System), ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts), JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency), Météo France, NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration), NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), and the UKMO (United Kingdom Met Office).

The IOD is currently neutral and all six of the international models surveyed by the Bureau forecast the IOD will remain so over winter. Beyond winter, one model predicts a negative IOD in October.

Figure 2 showing most international model outlooks for the IOD sea surface temperature index remain neutral in October. Model outlooks provided by: BoM (Bureau of Meteorology), CanSIPS (Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System), ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts), Météo France, NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration), and the UKMO (United Kingdom Met Office).

When the IOD and ENSO are neutral, other climate drivers can have a greater influence on Australian rainfall and temperature patterns. Also, long-term trends, such as the drying during the cool season (April-October) in southern Australia, and the increasing global atmospheric and ocean temperatures, can be more obvious without a contribution from IOD or ENSO events.

Read the ENSO Wrap-Up for more details about the current state of the Pacific and Indian Oceans.

See the Climate Model Summary for a comparison of the international model forecasts for June and August.

Laverton radar upgrade

The Bureau of Meteorology is refurbishing key components of the Laverton Radar in early April, to complete a mid-life upgrade that will extend the life of the radar by another 10 years. For current weather and three-hour forecasts go to MetEye . The nearby Broadmeadows Radar will be available and should be used in combination with the Bureau's Satellite Viewer cloud and lightning images. We expect to have the radar back on line mid-April. 

Getting into the flow of BOM Webinars

The Bureau of Meteorology is pleased to present free BOM Webinars delivered by water, weather, climate and ocean experts. Two water related webinars took place early June and two more are happening soon.

Register now and you can join us at the time and ask questions, otherwise we will email you a link to the recording after the webinar.

If you would like to be kept informed about BOM Webinars, subscribe to the mailing list or visit the webinar home page for a list of upcoming events.

Upcoming BOM Webinars

 Get near real-time soil moisture estimates for your location or catchment
When: Wednesday, 20 June 2018 I 11.00 am – 12 pm AEST

Discuss how to obtain modelled data on soil moisture, runoff, evapotranspiration, deep drainage and precipitation 

  
 Making groundwater visible
When: Thursday 28 June 2018 I 2.00 pm – 3.00 pm AEST

Learn how to access comprehensive, nationally consistent groundwater information from across Australia

       

ICYMI

On 7 June 2018, over 200 attendees dialled in for the first webinar in the BOM Webinar series. Accounting for Australia's water resources examined how to measure, monitor and account for water stores and flows, water rights and water use.

The second webinar on 13 June 2018, Water forecasting, showcased the short and long term water forecasting products the Bureau offers.

If you want to watch a recording of these webinars or receive the presentations, contact communication@bom.gov.au

Get social with us on LinkedIn by including #BOMWebinars in your posts.