Dry, warm winter likely
The outlook for winter, issued Thursday 16 May, shows a warmer and drier than average season is
likely for most of Victoria.
Parts of the south have roughly equal chances of a drier or wetter than average winter. But as you
move further north the chance of above average rainfall decreases.
Winter days are likely to be warmer than usual, with the highest chances (greater than 80%) in the
Nights are likely to be warmer than average across most of the State, with the strongest chances in
the southeast. In the northwest there's roughly equal chances for warmer or cooler than usual
The Bureau's climate model suggests the dry pattern in the outlook for Victoria is being driven by the
increased chance of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole event during winter. The current El Niño-like
warmth in the Pacific is expected to cool in the coming months, easing the central tropical Pacific
further into a neutral ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) phase by mid-winter. If the models are
correct, then the dry influence from the Indian Ocean will likely replace the dry influence from the
Pacific. El Niño typically brings below average winter–spring rainfall to eastern Australia, while a
positive Indian Ocean Dipole typically brings below average rainfall to southern and central Australia.
When the two phenomena coincide, they can reinforce their dry impacts.
See the complete winter Climate Outlook.
Join us for a winter webinar
You’re invited to attend a BOM Webinar delivered by the Bureau of Meteorology’s weather, water,
climate and ocean experts.
The next webinar is the Winter 2019 climate and water update, Thursday 6 June 2019, 11.00 am –
12.00 pm AEST. Get an in-depth analysis of recent conditions for autumn 2019, as well as the rainfall
and temperature outlook for the coming winter.
Register now at the link below, or send this link to a friend, colleague or customer who might be
Visit the BOM Webinars page for more information and subscribe to get notifications of upcoming