May–July: high temperatures, 50:50 rainfall
May to July 2019 is very likely to be warmer than average in Victoria. The chances of higher than
usual daytime and night-time temperatures are greater than 80% for most of the south and east.
This follows Victoria's warmest summer on record and a warm start to Autumn.
The rainfall outlook is mostly neutral with roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier than average
three months ahead.
Sometimes the patterns in the oceans and atmosphere that drive Australia's climate aren't strong
enough to steer us towards a wetter-or drier-than-average season, resulting in a neutral, or 50:50,
outlook. This can also happen if different climate drivers are showing opposite impacts—they can
cancel each other out. Currently, our two biggest climate drivers, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation
and the Indian Ocean Dipole, are both neutral.
A forecast of a 50% chance of exceeding median rainfall means there is less chance of extremely wet
or extremely dry conditions over large areas. It doesn't mean you should expect median rainfall.
There is a lot of year to year variability in Victorian rainfall. If we just consider the middle 50% of past
May–July rainfall totals for the State (ignoring the driest and wettest quarters of the rainfall record)
there's still almost a 70 mm difference within those closer to average seasons.
See the complete Climate Outlooks.
March 2019: Warm and mostly dry
Overall, March 2019 in Victoria was drier and warmer than usual.
Rainfall in the last weeks of March lifted monthly totals in the far east to above average but elsewhere they remained average to below average. Much of north-western Victoria recorded less than 5 mm for the month.
Following Victoria's warmest summer on record, March days were warmer than normal, especially in central Victoria where the average maximum temperature was 2–3 °C higher than usual. Nights were warmer than normal too—more than 1 °C above average in central and eastern Victoria.
More than 30 bushfires burned across Victoria in the first week of March; most of them were sparked by lightning over the ranges to the east of Melbourne.
A vigorous cold front crossed the State on the 25th, producing damaging winds, with many sites recording gusts in excess of 80 km/h; the strongest wind gust in Victoria this month, 124 km/h, was recorded at Wilsons Promontory Lighthouse on the 25th; the Victorian State Emergency Service (SES) responded to more than 140 calls for help, mostly for downed trees and building damage.
See the complete Monthly Climate Summary for Victoria.