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July is looking drier than average

The remainder of July is likely to be drier than average for most of the State. While the August outlook is showing a wet signal for parts of the country, it doesn't extend to much of Victoria. But in September, northern and eastern Victoria share an increased chance of above average rainfall along with much of eastern Australia.

One of the reasons for the wet outlook for parts of the country is an increased chance of La Niña developing in the coming months. There's about a 50 per cent chance La Niña could occur, roughly double the normal likelihood. La Niña typically increases the chance of above average rainfall over much of Australia.

It wouldn't be winter without some frozen mornings and chilly days but overall, temperatures are likely to be warmer than average in the months ahead. The outlook for both days and nights is warmer than average during August and September.

Rainfall for the first half of 2020 was in the wettest 10 per cent of records for parts of central and north-eastern Victoria. Elsewhere it was mostly average to above average except for parts of East Gippsland where it has been a drier than usual first six months of the year. It is a contrast with 2019, 2018 and 2017 when parts of the State had rainfall in the driest 10 per cent of records for January to June.

Root zone soil moisture is still above average across much of central Victoria and the North East following the wet start to the year overall. But a drier than usual June means we are starting to see areas of below average soil moisture expand in the northwest. And spare a thought for East Gippsland were some places haven't seen above average soil moisture since June 2019.

Recent Weather Updates

  • Dry June for the south | 3/07/2020  

    June was drier than average and the reduced cloud brought warmer than average days but meant nights were cooler than usual.

  • Increased chance of La Niña in spring | 26/06/2020  

    Even though we're on track for a drier than average June, the wet start to 2020 means soil moisture is still very much above average in parts of the central district and around Melbourne.

  • A cold start to winter | 12/06/2020  

    The temperature plunge last week was a chilling reminder that winter has arrived.