It has been a drier than average August so far for Victoria's south, most of the action has been north of the border. Root zone soil moisture is below average for much of the southwest and parts of the northeast but above average across most of Central and East Gippsland.
Notably, Central and East Gippsland, along with the Mallee, are the only parts of Victoria in severe rainfall deficiency (lowest 5% of records) for the most recent 28 months. For that same period, April 2018 to July 2020, parts of southern WA, SA, NSW and southern Queensland are driest on record.
The latest outlook for spring shows high chances (greater than 80%) for a wetter than average spring for most of the eastern half of Australia. The high chances extend into northern and central Victoria and reduce gradually towards the state's southwest and southeast.
Spring (September to November) rainfall outlook
There is light on the horizon if you are sick of the cold mornings, the spring outlook is showing high chances that nights will be warmer than average over most of the country, including Victoria, except for parts of Western Australia. But don't put away the doona yet, there is still a normal chance of colder nights for parts of Victoria's west and south for the rest of August and September. Minimum temperatures were more than 8 °C lower than average for parts of the northwest on the 5th and 6th triggering record low August daily minimum temperatures at a number of stations including: Horsham, Swan Hill and Nhill.
Spring days are likely to be warmer than average along the coast and cooler than average in the northwest—the area of southeast Australia forecast to have cooler days aligns with the area with the highest chance of above average rainfall.
One of the main reasons for the wet look are signs that the Pacific Ocean might be shifting into a La Niña phase. During La Niña the trade winds strengthen, pushing warmer surface waters towards the north of Australia. The warmer sea surface temperatures enhance cloudiness and rainfall and it typically leads to above average rainfall for eastern and central Australia.